Graduate Students

Ankica Grant completed a Master of Environmental Studies in 2007 at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario. Her thesis is entitled "Fighting Fire with Fire: Investigating Prescribed Burns for Fuel and Fire Management in Quetico Provincial Park, Ontario".

Ankica used the Prometheus model to assess the potential of prescribed burns to serve as regional fuel breaks. Her thesis can be obtained from:
http://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/10012/3006/1/AnneGrantThesis.pdf

Stacey Vojtek completed a Master of Environmental Studies in 2007 at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario. Her thesis is entitled "Decreasing average wildfire size through random fuel treatments: A boreal forest case study".

Stacey used the Prometheus model to assess whether fuel isolation and fuel conversion were effective at reducing average area burned in Quetico Provincial Park, Ontario. Her thesis can be obtained from:
http://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/10012/3023/1/Thesis-stacey.pdf

MITACS Project

Alberta SRD participated in the 10th PIMS (Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences) Industrial Problem Solving Workshop at Simon Fraser University, June 26 – 30, 2006. Two difficult problems requiring mathematical solutions were presented at the workshop. As a result of the success of this workshop, Alberta SRD is continuing to engage the mathematics and statistics community through MITACS to continue research and development of world class fire management decision support tools to simulate fire growth. MITACS (Mathematics of Information Technology and Complex Systems) provides a unique opportunity to collaboratively develop innovative mathematical solutions for modeling fire spread. MITACS is recognized worldwide as an effective model for research and development in mathematical sciences. It is a federally funded Network of Centres of Excellence (NCE) in the mathematical sciences.

In 2007, Dr. Thomas Hillen from the University of Alberta submitted a collaborative research project proposal to MITACS entitled, "Forest Fires and Spread in Heterogeneous Landscapes". This proposal which was accepted and awarded funding by MITACS, includes research in the following areas:

1. Incorporating randomness in the Prometheus model
Dr. John Braun, University of Western Ontario
Dr. David Martell, University of Toronto

2. Delooping and the Marker Method
Dr. Chris Bose, University of Victoria

3. Level Set Methods
Dr. Anne Bourlioux, University of Montreal

4. Diffusion Models
Dr. Thomas Hillen, University of Alberta

5. Management and Optimization
Dr. David Martell, University of Toronto
Dr. John Braun, University of Western Ontario

GEOIDE Strategic Investment Initiative
Stochastic Modeling of Forest Dynamics

This research proposal brings together a team of statisticians and forestry researchers to address mathematical and statistical problems in forest ecology and forest management. One of the projects entitled "PROMETHEUS and Fire Spread" addresses the need to incorporate randomness into the Prometheus model. The research team co-leaders include:

Charmaine Dean, Simon Fraser University
Spatio-temporal data analysis

David Martell, University of Toronto
Fire management systems

John Braun, University of Western Ontario
Statistical theory and applications

Statistical approaches to randomizing Prometheus involving local smoothing and block-re-sampling of input data will be refined, using additive smoothing models which include indicator variables for fuel type variables. Automatic smoothing parameter selection using cross-validation will be studied and implemented. Other stochastic approaches will also be investigated.

New 2D and 3D Views

New graphic user interfaces are under development for both the 2D and 3D map views. In Version 5.1.8, the 3D map view has been deactivated. The new map views will be included in Version 5.2.0. .

Prometheus Tutorial

Alberta SRD is developing a Prometheus tutorial for use by beginners or users who need a refresher course. This stand alone interactive software includes exercises, demonstrations and questions/answers. It provides easy instruction on how to get started and how to run a simulation. The scheduled release of the Prometheus tutorial has been delayed because of the on-going development and incorporation of new functionality. This tutorial will also be integrated into the Prometheus application.

Development and Assessment of the Prometheus Fire Growth Simulation Model

A technical report was submitted to the Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Centre for publication. This report should be available in 2008. It describes the development, structure and assessment of the Prometheus fire growth simulation model. The applications of the model, and its limitations and assumptions are also documented.

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