Introduction
Burn-P3 is a simulation model used to assess burn probability over large fire-prone landscapes. The model has been integrated into a Windows-based application. This summary document briefly describes Burn-P3 and provides links to download the program and documentation.
Burn probability (BP) mapping with the Burn-P3 simulation model
The Burn-P3 report (Parisien et al. 2005) describes the basic framework and components of the model in detail. The Burn-P3 simulation model evaluates the burn probability (BP) of large fire-prone areas by simulating the growth of a large number of fires. Fire spread is modeled by Prometheus, a fire growth model and computer application. Prometheus in turn incorporates the fuel type-specific spread rate equations found in the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992).
Each fire is modeled deterministically (i.e., one set of inputs always produces the same output) by Prometheus by calculating the final perimeter of each fire. In contrast, the Burn-P3 fire regime components, such as the number of fires per iteration, location of fire starts, weather conditions under which the fires burn, and the burning period, are modeled probabilistically (i.e., inputs are drawn from a probability distribution) according to user-specified fire regime parameters.
In Burn-P3, fires are simulated one at a time within a fire season. This process is repeated for a large number of iterations. Therefore, fires are simulated according to a given set of landscape (fuels and topography), fire, and weather inputs for an iteration and recorded in a grid. This process is repeated for each iteration, and the grids of all iterations are compiled in a cumulative grid of burn frequency. The BP of every point on the landscape is calculated as follows:
BP = (Number of times burned) / (Number of iterations) * 100%
where BP is expressed as a percentage that represents the likelihood of each point (i.e., pixel) on the landscape being burned in a single fire season.
Burn probability map of Prince Albert National Park and surrounding area (central Saskatchewan). The map was produced by Burn-P3 based on 1080 simulated fires.
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Recent updates and the development of a graphic user interface
The initial version of Burn-P3 used the Wildfire model to simulate fire spread. Wildfire is an 8-point cellular-based fire propagation model. Wildfire was replaced by the Prometheus fire growth model, which is based on wave propagation principles, providing a more realistic representation of fire size and shape. This enhances the accuracy of burn probability estimates.
Given the potential usefulness to Canadian land managers and fire scientists, a Windows-based GUI was developed to provide a user-friendly environment for running Burn-P3. The GUI encompasses all of the documented Burn-P3 functionality, but also allows the user to generate "on the fly" or exploratory burn probability maps that require minimal data by using simplifying assumptions. For example, the user can use random ignition locations instead of importing spatial ignition grids.
To run Burn-P3, the PrometheusCOM (component object model) must be installed. Both Burn-P3 and the PrometheusCOM are free of charge, but the COM requires a license key. The PrometheusCOM license is provided to collaborating agencies and academia researchers.
Adding an ignition rule in the Burn-P3 user interface. The main window is in the background. All parameters and functions can be accessed through the menu on the left; the fuels map is being displayed in the view on the right.
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The future
Although the Burn-P3 GUI is currently fully functional and available, it remains a work in progress. Please send any comments and bug reports to the contact below. This feedback will provide the opportunity to assess user needs and preferences and guide future development.
Contact:
Peter Englefield
Canadian Forest Service
(780) 435-7254
Downloads
The Burn-P3 executable, user documentation, and test database can be downloaded from the Canadian Forest Service via this FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nofc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pub/fire/BURN_P3
General Burn-P3 technical documentation with a case study in central Saskatchewan
Acknowledgements
The Burn-P3 GUI was created by the Canadian Forest Service as part of a multi-agency partnership with Parks Canada, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, and Saskatchewan Environment. The first version of BURN-P3 was developed by the Canadian Forest Service and Parks Canada with the financial support of Saskatchewan Environment. A user-firendly, windows-based application of BURN-P3 (version 1.0) was then developed by the Canadian Forest Service, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development and Parks Canada with funding provided by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) and the Canadian Forest Service.
Additional funding was provided by Alberta Sustainable Resource Development and Saskatchewan Environment to provide user enhancements and increased functionality (version 2.0).
The Burn-P3 software engineering has incorporated source code from the Prometheus project.
References
Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group. 1992. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System. Information Rep. ST-X-3. Ottawa, ON: Forestry Canada. 64 p.
Parisien, M.A.; Kafka, V.G.; Hirsch, K.G.; Todd, J.B.; Lavoie, S.G.; Maczek, P.D. 2005. Using the Burn-P3 simulation model to map wildfire susceptibility. Information Rep. NOR-X-405. Edmonton, AB: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre. 36 p.
